Everything Is Up for Grabs in North Carolina This Election Day. The Consequences for Public Schools Could Be Huge
This year, the day designated for elections in North Carolina can be accurately described as "Elections Day." In addition to the closely contested battle between President Donald Trump and Joe Biden, there are an overwhelming number of local and statewide offices up for grabs on November 3rd. These include not only competitive races for governor and senator, but also for lower-level positions such as lieutenant governor, state treasurer, and superintendent of public instruction. There is also the possibility of one or both chambers of the Republican-led General Assembly, which has been a constant thorn in the side of incumbent Democratic Governor Roy Cooper, changing hands.
The outcome of these elections will have a significant impact on the future of education policy in the ninth-largest state in the country. Governor Cooper, who is favored for re-election due to his well-received response to the COVID-19 pandemic, won the governorship in 2016 with a promise to make substantial progressive changes to North Carolina’s schools. However, most of that agenda has been hindered by the Republican Party’s stronghold on the legislature. The events of 2020, with its focus on issues of race and public health, have shifted attention away from education policy.
The results of the elections will likely have a profound impact on school choice, funding, and teacher salaries, even if these issues are not extensively discussed in campaign ads or debates. Ferrel Guillory, vice chairman of the education news organization EducationNC and a long-time observer of education in the state, emphasizes the importance of these elections in determining the path of education in North Carolina. He notes that there has been a significant education debate in the state since the Republicans gained the majority in the legislature in 2010, and the outcome of the elections will shape the future of education policy by influencing the composition of the state government.
The highly partisan nature of politics in Raleigh over the past two years has led to a lack of an official budget, presenting unique fiscal challenges. The disagreements over teacher pay increases and the safe reopening of schools have exacerbated the situation. Additionally, there has been significant movement on a long-standing lawsuit regarding the state’s approach to funding schools, which may necessitate action from lawmakers regardless of the election outcome.
Terry Stoops, director of education studies at the conservative John Locke Foundation, suggests that a shift towards unified control over government, either by Democrats seizing the statehouse or Republicans unseating Governor Cooper, could simplify matters. However, he believes that the chances of either scenario are unlikely. A fragmented outcome, with neither party gaining full control, would do little to reduce the partisanship and disagreements in education policy. Stoops does not foresee a decrease in the intensity of North Carolina’s education politics regardless of the election results.
The battle over K-12 schools in North Carolina has unfolded alongside significant changes in the state’s political identity. In the past two decades, the state has become a more competitive electoral environment, with an influx of non-white and college-educated professionals, particularly in Charlotte and Raleigh. This shift was exemplified by Barack Obama’s surprise victory in the state during his 2008 campaign, breaking the Republican dominance at the federal level since 1976.
However, this trend was overturned just two years later when a Tea Party wave helped Republicans regain control of the state Senate and House of Representatives for the first time in over a century. The new majority wasted no time in expanding school choice options, including lifting the cap on charter schools, which subsequently doubled the state’s charter enrollment in less than ten years. They also collaborated with Republican Governor Pat McCrory to establish the Opportunity Scholarship program, providing vouchers for low- and moderate-income students to attend private schools.
Even after Governor Cooper’s victory in 2016, the Republican Party continued to push forward with their ambitions. They voted to reduce Cooper’s executive powers, leading to what was labeled a "legislative coup." This resulted in a contentious working relationship between the executive and legislative branches from the very beginning, according to Stoops.
However, the dynamics shifted after the 2018 midterms. Following a successful year for the Democrats, the Republicans now hold slim majorities of only eight seats in the state Senate and 10 seats in the House of Representatives. These reduced margins allowed Governor Cooper to wage a battle over the state’s 2019-20 budget when Republicans proposed a two-year teacher pay raise of 3.9 percent, which fell well short of what school employees had requested. As a result, the state has spent the year going through a series of "mini-budgets" without any visible compromise on the horizon.
The issue of teacher pay raises has remained in the public eye since 2018 when teachers rallied in Raleigh as part of the Red for Ed protests. Governor Cooper has strongly advocated for their cause and placed blame on the Republican legislature after vetoing the proposed salary increase, which he deemed as "insignificant." While he did approve a statewide $350 bonus at the end of the 2020 school year, Cooper argued that it was far from sufficient.
David McClennan, a political scientist and pollster at Meredith College, noted that teachers gave Cooper a pass on the matter, even when it came at a personal cost to them. According to McClennan, "[The 2018 protests] were solely aimed at the Republican leadership in the legislature. Governor Cooper even attended and was well-received. So there is definitely a prevailing sentiment in the state, whether justified or not, that the legislature is anti-education while the governor is pro-education."
Cooper is now facing Republican lieutenant governor Dan Forest, a strong proponent of school choice and a homeschooling parent, in the race for a second term. This contest was expected to be one of the few highly competitive races in a year when most governors are not up for re-election.
However, Cooper maintains a fairly comfortable lead in pre-election polling. Many attribute his strong position to his widely praised efforts in combating the spread of COVID-19, including early implementation of stringent social distancing measures that surpassed those of most other Southern states. Despite a highly publicized legal battle initiated by Forest, which proved unsuccessful in blocking the mandates, Cooper’s measures remained intact.
McClennan pointed out that Cooper has consistently been the most popular politician in North Carolina while campaigning for "a predominantly progressive agenda." He believes this popularity is partly due to voter goodwill towards a governor who has successfully guided the state through various crises, such as the challenges posed by Hurricane Florence in 2018.
"They are aware that the General Assembly has been under Republican control throughout his entire tenure, so they question how much he could have accomplished. Additionally, not just in the case of COVID, Cooper has been praised for his emergency powers as governor."
Although Cooper is not a guaranteed winner, his increased chances of securing a second term have led political enthusiasts to speculate on whether the Democrats could achieve a "trifecta" in governing, meaning control over the governor’s office and both chambers of the General Assembly. Following successful gains in state legislative elections in 2018, the Democratic party is eyeing potential opportunities that may arise following an anti-Trump wave. Coupled with a Cooper victory, a shift of just a few seats – five in the Senate and six in the House – would result in a triumphant Election Night for the Democrats.
Guillory believes that the state’s legislative districts, which were redrawn in 2017 after a federal court deemed them unconstitutionally biased in favor of Republicans, present an opportunity, although much of the easily achievable goals were obtained two years ago.
"These new districts still favor Republicans," he stated. "While there are more districts available for Democrats to win, the reality is that Republicans have some level of protection. Democrats need to win in all the districts where they have a chance if they want to make a significant impact in the legislature."
Unless the Democratic party takes full control of the legislature, the success of a potential second term for Cooper will depend on the strength of the compromises that can be negotiated with Republicans. One such agreement was reached in September, when a bill was passed to shield local school districts from spending cuts due to declining enrollment. Democrats celebrated the proposal, although it came at the cost of slightly raising the income threshold for participation in the Opportunity Scholarship program.
The Leandro case has been a major driver of the policy discussions in North Carolina, as it encompasses various key issues in education policy in the state, such as teacher salaries, programs for underprivileged and high-risk students, and early childhood education. According to Stoops, this case not only highlights the legislative aspects of education policy but also emphasizes the growing influence of the courts in shaping such policies.
